2015 Elections: Why PDP's Jimi Agbaje Lost In Lagos

The PDP candidate and a serial contestant for the Lagos gubernatorial seat, Jimi Agbaje has once again lost his bid for the coveted position. The loss by Agbaje must be a painful defeat for him and his followers. He fought hard to win this time around, having contested twice for the elusive seat.


After the winner was announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission, Mr Agbaje conceded defeat and promised to never run again. According to him, there are other ways he can contribute his service to the state and the country in general. Agbaje’s concession speech did confirm what many observers had said about him: a gentleman and a fine politician who abhors violence and the chaos that characterize our political system.

By conceding defeat, Mr Agbaje keeps his reputation intact. Who knows what tomorrow will hold? But now that the election has been won and lost, it will not be an exercise in futility to interrogate why a fine candidate like Jimi lost. Why has he become a serial contestant in spite of his impeccable public profile? Why was he not able to get the required number of votes to catapult him to the position of “Lagos number one citizen” after several attempts? What did he do wrong? Was his strategy wrong, or is it that the acclaimed godfather of South-west politics, the man known as Jagaban Borgu, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, was a master strategist “too hot” to handle?

I need to make a point: Mr Agbaje ran a good campaign. I was particularly struck by aesthetic of his slogans. But I must also say that he goofed several times on the campaign trail. To understand the man, illuminating to interrogate his political trajectory would help. He has always been part of the Tinubu political clan — albeit briefly. His foray into the tempestuous political terrain began in 2007. As a member of Afenifere, Jimi Agbaje joined the Action Congress, his first political party. In 2007, Agbaje, who had initially aspired to contest for the Governor of Lagos State on the platform of the AC, left the party in anger to join the Democratic People’s Alliance after a disagreement with Bola Tinubu by the 11 governorship aspirants who alleged that Governor Bola Tinubu, as he then was, had already anointed candidate  to succeed him even before the primaries.

Agbaje contested in gubernatorial election on the DPA’s platform, but eventually, alongside other major contenders — Obanikoro of the PDP, Femi Pedro of the Labour Party — lost to the incumbent and outgoing Fashola. Not done with his ambition, Agbaje left the DPA in 2011 and went on to join the ruling PDP, following the de-registration of the DPA by the INEC. In 2014, he indicated his interest in giving the Lagos state gubernatorial elections another shot. He eventually emerged as the candidate of the PDP, having defeated Musiliu Obanikoro .

Mr Agbaje’s political trajectory has been short and interesting. But, sadly, the journey seems to have come to an end with the loss yet again to an APC candidate. Earlier, in this piece, I had written that, even though he ran an almost flawless campaign, he failed in one sense: he was never clear on what he would do differently if elected as governor of what is arguably the most important state in Nigeria. His campaign seems to be solely antagonistic to Fashola’s administration and policies, without providing an alternative to how he hoped to govern Lagos. His campaign was mostly dwelt on rhetoric. All we heard is how he “would stop this project and review that project” without any concrete plan on how he would make things work. Running a campaign hinged on knocking down the APC’s achievements was never going to win an election in a metropolitan state like Lagos with a highly-literate population. It was an ill thought-out strategy. Jimi Agbaje’s campaign was conducted under the shadows of Fashola’s achievements. That was one of his greatest undoings.
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The perception that he was in the wrong party and had the backings, or may have been handpicked by some politicians like Bode George and Adeseye Ogunlewe did not help. There is no doubt that their controversial reputation may have hurt Jimi’s chances, given the attitude of Lagosians towards these two politicians. By voting the APC candidate Ambode, who many also consider as the candidate of the Jagaban and Oba Akiolu, Lagosians seem to prefer the devil they know than some new angelic godfathers.

At a polling booth in my part of Lagos, one voter confided in me that he would rather stick with Tinubu than the duo of the PDP godfathers who will come with a vengeance to settle personal scores and set Lagos back for another sixteen years. There is also the perception that, although he may be a good man, Agbaje’s membership in the “wrong” PDP may have worked against him. Like many Lagosians, I also cringed at his public statements during the campaign trail. He had said once that if Nigerians do not vote for President Jonathan, Niger Deltan militants would shut oil production in retaliation. That was instantly interpreted as blackmail.

Now that Jonathan has lost his re-election bid, and Jimi also lost his governorship seat, he should be careful in the future not to play the ethnic card. The “last straw” that broke Agbaje’s electoral back was when he attempted to latch on the reprehensible Oba Akiolu anti-Igbo rants a week before the election. What was Jimi thinking? Oba Akiolu’s Igbos-will-perish-in-the-lagoon if they don’t vote for Akinwunmi Ambode was a dark chapter in the run-up to the polls. But Agbaje’s ill-advised strategy to catch in on the situation to gain political mileage effectively changed the perception of him among his Yoruba ethnic folks.

The politicisation of the contest also polarised the Yoruba and Igbo community into two camps. Even though the Oba of Lagos was roundly condemned for his ethnic slur, Agbaje became a sell-out in the eyes of the Yoruba. They saw him as an Igbo candidate. It was an unfortunate situation. But that is the way of our politics. The Yoruba were poised to demonstrate who owns the land. The level of divisiveness the Oba’s comment generated online was unprecedented. When Agbaje said the Igbo should push the APC into the lagoon with their votes, he had stirred the ethnic hornet’s nest. The alleged Igbo protest votes could not get him the required majority, and he lost. I hope lessons have been learnt by every stakeholder. Never again should politics cross the ethnic divide in a city like Lagos. Good luck to Mr Agbaje in his future endeavours.